Kazakhstan’s Dependence on Russian Goods



 Kazakhstan's economy is becoming more and more reliant on Russian commodities.  Meanwhile, local products are unable to compete, as analysts from the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) learned from their analysis of the trade turnover between the two nations in 2024.

Last year, Kazakhstan’s trade volume with Russia rose by 3% to $27.8 billion.  Imports of Russian goods increased by 8%, while exports of Kazakhstani products to Russia fell by 6%.

 Russian goods now account for nearly a third (31%) of Kazakhstan’s total imports.  Over the past year, Kazakhstan has increased purchases from Russia, particularly in:

 Textile products (+$364 million).

 Precious metals (+$390 million).

Chemical goods (+$334 million).

Imports of food rose by $129 million, and non-food items rose by $505 million. $929 million more was imported as intermediate goods, which are inputs to produce final goods and services. Experts indicate that even though the ruble appreciated in 2024, making Russian products more costly, they are still cheaper than Kazakhstani products. The majority of the transactions with Russia are made in rubles, with 77% of export payments and 96% of import payments being made in Russian currency.  The ruble has appreciated by 26% against the tenge since the start of 2025, from 4.8 to 6.1 tenge per one ruble.

This may raise the price of imports from Russia. But unless the reliance is cut back, Kazakhstan will keep on buying Russian products at high costs, still widening the trade imbalance, inflation and foreign exchange market. In analysts' opinion, the effect could worsen if there is a reduction in the geopolitical tensions and Moscow's relations with Washington become better. The AFK reported that the trade deficit of Kazakhstan with Russia increased by 31% in 2024, up from $6.6 billion to $8.7 billion.  This shows that Kazakhstan imports much more in Russia than it exports in Russia. Such a trade deficit adds more strain on Kazakhstan's economy.  For instance, the country has a deficit with Russia of $8.7 billion, which is almost double its overall current account deficit of $4.4 billion, adding more risks to financial stability.




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